Steve Jarvis
Senior Technical Analyst
Steves career started at London Stockbroker Grieveson Grant (later part of the Kleinwort and Dresdner groups), where from 1983 to 1988 he worked within the firm’s top rated Technical Analysis team.
In 1988 Steve joined MCM CurrencyWatch (which later became Informa Global Markets) as their first full-time London Technical Analyst, and over the following twenty years built up and managed an award-winning global team of Technical Analysts.
Steve joined TraderMade at the beginning of 2009 to start up and head up InterpreTA, their FX Technical Analysis service, which has steadily expanded since then to include a broad range of EMEA & Asian FX rates, plus key Commodities.
Steve has been a member of the Society of Technical Analysts (MSTA) since its formation in the mid 1980’s and also holds the International Federation of Technical Analysts’ certification (CFTe).
In addition Steve is a regular contributor to several Technical Analysis, FOREX and Financial Market magazines.

steve.jarvis's blog

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Compare the FX markets. Simples!

Those of you following me on twitter ( @InterpretaSteve ) will be aware that a lot of my time nowadays is spent watching Currency basket charts, looking for emerging new trends which might otherwise be missed by looking at individual FX charts.  For a background of how these are constructed, please see my 21st October blog at http://bit.ly/1XCAnQQ

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Simplifying Technical Analysis of Individual Currencies, rather than FX pairs

One of the problems facing analysts of the Foreign Exchange markets is that Currencies are quoted in pairs. GBP/USD at 1.54 means "each GBP is worth 1.54 USD".  So each chart or price series indicates how well each Currency is doing relative to the other.  To gain a better understanding of how well any one individual Currency is actually doing, you need to look at a number of different pairs or cross-rates.

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FX chart time-frames. How low do you go?

Most of the published analysis from the Tradermade FX service is based on either daily charts (with 22, 65 & 260 day /1, 3 & 12 month moving averages) or 4 hour charts (with 30, 60 & 132 period / 5, 10 & 22 day moving averages), but in addition to this I also maintain chart formats over much longer and shorter-term time periods for a wide range of currency pairs.

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Sterling update. Are the FX markets right to be concerned?

A lot has happened since I last featured Sterling (in the immediate aftermath of the UK General Election on 7th May) at which time I was broadly bullish for the Pound (see http://bit.ly/1LONbBR ).  Strength was then enjoyed for several months, but over the past couple of months the Pound has gradually lost it's sparkle against one major currency after another.  The question now, is Sterling set for a broad period of weakness or have recent losses been overdone?

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A reminder of the importance of long-term moving averages in the FX markets

Regular readers of my column may recall the article I wrote last October ( see http://bit.ly/1QnSdFg ) on the subject of which moving averages I find work best in the FX markets.  Within that article, I questioned why so many "market commentators" still refer to the 200 day moving average, when the evidence points to the 260 day (one year) moving average being a better tool.

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Swedish Kronor update - remains generally positive, can this be sustained?

I last featured the Swedish Kronor on 10th June (see http://bit.ly/1JN6SEl ), at which point it had shot up my rankings but appeared to be at risk of an initial setback before a further period of strength.  That proved to be pretty much the case in terms of SEKCAD, SEKAUD, SEKNZD & SEKNOK with SEKUSD, SEKCHF & SEKGBP also broadly adhering to this outlook, although the anticipated further period of strength has not fully developed yet.

The US Dollar charts are certainly looking very interesting at the moment.  It remains in a strong uptrend versus the Norwegian Kroner, Canadian, Australian & New Zealand Dollars, but over recent weeks has been losing ground against the Euro & Pound Sterling, and has lacked clear direction versus the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc & Swedish Kroner (and also the USD Index).

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Canadian Dollar turned bearish 6 weeks ago - no light yet at the end of the tunnel

For the first half of 2015, the Canadian Dollar was a mid ranking Currency, enjoying brief spells of strength and bouts of weakness, but generally stuck firmly in the neutral category.  For 16 of those 26 weeks I had classified the Canadian Dollar as neutral, with just 5 weeks spent in an uptrend and 5 weeks in a downtrend.

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Swiss Franc shake-out at risk of persisting for a number of weeks yet

Just three weeks ago, the Swiss Franc was one of the strongest trending major Currencies, only bettered by the US Dollar & Pound Sterling.  Since then, there has been a significant shake-out which has seen it slide down our medium-term Currency rankings.

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It's all about the Euro at the moment

The Euro has climbed back into the top half of my currency rankings this week, this after having been downgraded to neutral for a number of weeks while the Greek situation was grabbing all the headlines.  The Euro is now equal third with the Japanese Yen on a multi-week trend basis, sitting behind the US Dollar & Sterling which remain the strongest looking currencies at this stage.