Rahul Khanna
Technical Analyst
Rahul’s career started at Swiss Auto, where from 2005 to 2007 he worked as an MI analyst responsible for econometric analysis.
In 2009 Rahul joined ISBS as a lecturer for the University of Wales MBA Program, heading the Finance and Research department.
Over the following two years became Program leader for Post Graduate courses and worked with institutions providing education in Technical analysis.
Rahul Joined TraderMade at the beginning of 2011 within the rapidly expanding InterpreTA technical analysis team, assisting with coverage of the major US Dollar and cross-rates, plus EMEA & Asian FX, and Commodities.
Rahul has a finance Degree, Masters with Honours from University of Greenwich with Distinction in thesis on Technical analysis in the FX market.
Rahul is also a Chartered Financial Analyst Level 3 pass.

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Trending Economic: European Edition [23 December 2015]

USD has weakened over the past few days but still remains near levels seen post the release of the FOMC meeting last Wednesday. Yesterday the US existing home sales disappointed by coming in well below expectations but this has not impacted USD significantly as the US equity markets and front-end yields still remain firm. Today, we see the release of US durable goods orders (ex transport) with expectations of 0% while personal spending is expected to accelerate by 0.3% compared to the previous 0.1%.

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Trending Economic: European Edition [22 December 2015]

Atlanta Fed President Lockhart reiterated that a gradual pace of tightening is consistent with a rate hike every alternative meeting. Hence we expect USD strength to be dependent on market expectations that FED will deliver the four 25bp rate hikes next year that it proposes. At the moment the rates market is only pricing in two 25bp rate hikes next year and with a lack of a catalyst to change that view we expect USD to remain weak heading in to the year end unless US data improves considerably with durable goods order and personal spending due on Wednesday.

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Trending Economic: European Edition [21 December 2015]

USD has strengthened post the FOMC rate rise but remains far from reaching the highs seen at the end of November. The Rates market is still pricing in a 50 bps rates rise in 2016 despite the Fed keeping the median projection for the target Fed funds rate unchanged at 1.375% by the end of next year. Also the Fed funds future rate for April is still not fully pricing in a possible rate rise which highlights the room for yields and USD to rise.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [18 December 2015]

The BoJ left the annual pace of monetary base at about JPY 80 trillion, but proposed changes to the mix of purchases. The BoJ decided to extend the range of bonds maturity from 7-10 to 7-12 from 2016. The Bank also decided that it will start purchasing Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and Japan real estate investment trusts (J-REITs) so the amount outstanding will increase at JPY 3 trillion & JPY 90 billion respectively.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [17 December 2015]

The FOMC delivered the 25bp rate rise the market expected on Wednesday and as a result we have seen USD rally. The US 2-year yields have rallied and has now reached 100bp, widening the gap between the US and German 2-year yields further. Even though the Fed said that the monetary tightening will be gradual the median trajectory for the fed funds rate at the end of 2016 remained at 1.375%, more than the 0.5% market expects which should support the outlook of a gradual dollar rise.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [16 December 2015]

We expect the Fed to start tightening the monetary policy today with a 25bp rate rise in the fed funds target rate. In the event of a rate rise the press conference following the Fed rates decision is likely to be very dovish to stem a dollar rise. We expect Yellen to convey that the rate hike doesn’t mean that the monetary policy is now set on a predetermined path of rate hikes and that global developments and USD rise will have an impact on the pace of rate hikes.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [15 December 2015]

UK CPI y/y for November came in at 0.1%, same as expected, up from previous -0.1%. This is the first rise in over four months, but we need a more consistent data to have a significant impact on GBP. The market is currently pricing in a rate hike in 2017 and latest inflation data do little to change this view. However, the unemployment rate & average earnings on Wednesdays will give a better reflection of the UK economy where a better than expected data (signals wage pressure) will push GBP higher.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [14 December 2015]

USD is likely to gain if Fed delivers a 25bps (consensus) rate rise on Wednesday as it remains well below the highs seen in late November, despite market implying the more or less the same rate hike probability: the implied probability by the CME Group FedWatch remains near 79%.  A well below expected US CPI on Tuesday will warrant further weakness in dollar ahead of FOMC rates decision on Wednesday but we don’t see US CPI missing the expected target by enough to stall the Fed from raising rates.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [10 December 15]

UK trade deficit widened to £4.14 bln in October, from £1.07 bln previously, the BoE left rates unchanged at 0.5% and 8 out 9 voting members voted against a rate rise (same as before) but the accompanying MPC minutes were slightly dovish as remarks were made that fiscal consolidation will put a drag on forecast for the coming period (we mentioned this earlier in our fundamental view), overall the statement is unlikely to worry bears. We may see some short-term weakness for GBP but don’t see significant downside in GBP for now.

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Trending Economic: US Edition [09 December 2015]

USDCNY rose further despite the above expected Chinese CPI for November which came in at 1.5%, up from previous 1.3%. The PBoC allowed the RMB to depreciate further and this is likely to put further pressure on the commodity bloc and the emerging currencies vs. USD. Also the weak oil prices are likely to cause further weakness in NOK & CAD.