steve.jarvis's picture

Swedish Kronor update - remains generally positive, can this be sustained?

I last featured the Swedish Kronor on 10th June (see http://bit.ly/1JN6SEl ), at which point it had shot up my rankings but appeared to be at risk of an initial setback before a further period of strength.  That proved to be pretty much the case in terms of SEKCAD, SEKAUD, SEKNZD & SEKNOK with SEKUSD, SEKCHF & SEKGBP also broadly adhering to this outlook, although the anticipated further period of strength has not fully developed yet. Only SEKEUR & SEKJPY have so far failed to push higher.

The question is, can the Swedish Kronor sustain its recent broad improvement, or do the still weak SEKEUR & SEKJPY charts act as a warning that recent gains are about to come to an end?

Going through each of the main SEK FX pairings one by one, there are several major observations that can be made.   SEKCAD, SEKAUD, SEKNZD & SEKNOK all have bullishly aligned & rising 22, 65 & 260 day (1, 3 & 12 month) moving averages with their MACD indicators remaining broadly positive, suggesting further SEK gains ahead.  SEKGBP appears to be breaking upwards from a downtrend, while SEKUSD is stuck in a range with no clear directional signals at this time.  SEKEUR is consolidating recent losses and looks at risk of further losses over coming weeks, while SEKJPY is dipping from a lower top and shows bearish divergence. 

What these observations point to is a continuation of broad SEK strength against those currencies which have been weak over recent weeks & months, but a further initial erosion against the recently strong currencies such as the EUR & JPY.  Two bullish and two bearish SEK charts are shown below to try and illustrate these points. 

SEK/CAD                                             SEK/AUD                                             SEK/EUR                                    SEK/JPY

 

 

 

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