steve.jarvis's picture

JPY at the bottom of my rankings, but for how long?

It's been a few months since I featured the Japanese Yen, but over the past three weeks it's sunk to the bottom of my FX rankings. The question is, for how long will it stay there?  And is this the start of broad medium-term weakness or a short-term anomaly?

The long-term trend for the JPY is bearish versus the USD, GBP & CHF, broadly neutral versus the CAD, AUD, NZD and bullish against the EUR, NOK & SEK.  What you could call a mixed bag.

Over recent weeks, the JPY has had a significant setback versus the majority of the other major currencies listed above, but in many cases is now starting to recover.  It's multi-week trend, as defined by the 22 & 65 day (1 & 3 month) moving averages is bearish, with the latest strength classed as corrective to establish a lower top over the coming week or two.  With MACD also edging higher within bearish ground, on the balance of probability the JPY looks set for a return to multi-week weakness over coming weeks.  Only against the NZD does it not look bearish at present, which ties in with my analysis which puts the Kiwi equal last with the Yen in my rankings.

Technically, GBP, CAD & CHFJPY currently look the weakest for the Yen (IE most positive looking charts). They are shown below.

Click on each image to see an enlarged chart.

GBPJPY 6 month chart                                      CADJPY 6 month chart                                  CHFJPY 6 month chart     

 

 

 

 

 

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