steve.jarvis's picture

Euro - almost bottom of the pile now

The Euro has had a torrid start to the year.  It turned bearish on my trend-based ranking scheme in the second week of January and has remained there ever since, consistently coming 7th or 8th (out of 10) since then. It now looks to have slipped to 9th following the latest deterioration in EUR/SEK, which has seen the loss of several key support levels, leaving only the Norwegian Kronor as a lower ranked currency - for the time being.

Looking at the Euro against each of the other 9 major Currencies in my ranking system, there appears to be no immediate end in sight to it's broad period of under performance.  In almost all cases, the Euro continues to look like a "sell into strength".  Potentially it could be in the early stages of base building against the Norwegian Kronor (below left), but the same could have been said of EUR/SEK (below right) up until very recently and as previously mentioned, that has now taken a distinct turn for the worse.








The bearish trend is starting to become quite mature for EUR/USD & EUR/GBP, but in the case of EUR/CAD (below left) & EUR/NZD (below right) downwards momentum is only just starting to gather pace.  In all cases, the Euro is beginning to get stretched over the short-term, hence my earlier mention of looking like a "sell into strength" (rather than wishing to chase lower at the current time). 

EUR/CHF (see left) is the most obvious exception to this at the current time.  The corrective recovery which has been enjoyed since the mid January sell-off shows no immediate signs of having run it's course and could potentially persist for a number of weeks yet.  However, EUR/CHF's major underlying trend is still down and in due course we see the risk of a return to underlying gradual weakness.




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