steve.jarvis's picture

6 months on from the SNB, what's the outlook for the Swiss Franc?

Thursday 15th January 2015 is a day that many FX market participants will remember for many a long year.  That was when the SNB pulled the carpet from the EUR/CHF 1.2000 floor, a level they had up-to-that-point defended with utmost determination.  This led to an almighty surge in the Swiss currency, with across the board gains at one point in the region of 35%, before retracing much of the advance over the following 2 months.

Six months has now passed since that fateful day.  Against all of the other major currencies the Swiss Franc remains above pre 15th January levels, in many cases (including against the EURO), considerably so.  There were periods in March & May when the Swiss Franc showed signs of embarking on a sustained further unwinding of January's advance, but this didn't come to fruition and over recent week's it has moved back up onto the leaders board in our currency rankings.  

Over the short-term, the Swiss Franc has been losing ground to both the US Dollar & Sterling, which looks set to continue for a while yet.  See the first two charts below.    

Charts below:  CHF/USD                                           CHF/GBP                                                    CHF/EUR

 

 

 

 

 

Elsewhere, as the three charts below (as examples) highlight, the multi-week trend for the Swiss Franc continues to be strong.  By and large, the Swiss Franc's 22, 65 & 260 day (1, 3 & 12 month) moving averages are positively aligned and the MACD indicator retains a bullish bias.  It is possible there may be a short-term shake-out, but the multi-week outlook for the Swiss Franc is broadly positive.

Charts below:  CHF/JPY                                                   CHF/CAD                                                            CHF/AUD

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you would like to keep up to date with Tradermade's views on the Swiss Franc and other currencies, the best way is to take a FREE TRIAL of our award-winning FX Analysis service.  For a live sample page (the featured market is changed most days) please see http://www.tradermade.co.uk/InTA-free-sample where there are links to request your free 1 week trial (alternatively) http://www.tradermade.co.uk/user/register?regcode=landing.research.trial