rahul.khanna's picture

Trending Economic: Afternoon Brief [23 November 15]

EURUSD has found some support following above expected preliminary European PMI figures for November. The German manufacturing & services PMI (flash) came in at 52.6 & 55.6 respectively, both above expected. The Euro area composite PMI (flash) also came in above the expected 53.9, at 54.4. There has been a slight improvement in important statistics in the Euro area over the past month with a rise seen in core inflation rate to 1.1% from 0.9% and a dip seen in the unemployment rate to 10.8% from 10.9%. However, these figures remain week overall and the ECB is likely to act at the next meeting on December 3rd by cutting deposit rate by 10bp and possibly extending/expanding the quantitative easing programme. The German Q3 GDP growth rate (final) is due to come in on Tuesday, followed by German Ifo Business climate for November. A big positive surprise on these figures may provide some support to the EUR for the rest of the week.

USD has started the week on a positive note, with some key economic data due ahead of Thanksgiving Day holiday on Thursday. In terms of US data today the preliminary manufacturing PMI and the existing home sales come in at 1445 GMT & 1500 GMT respectively. For the week ahead the US Q3 GDP (2nd estimate) on Tuesday is expected to be revised to 2% from 1.5% earlier and the US durable goods orders on Wednesday are also expected to rise by 1.5% in October compared to 1.2% drop seen in September.