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Trending Economic: Afternoon Brief [06 November 15]

BoE Super Thursday has led to a broad GBP sell off, now down almost 1.5% versus the Dollar since the Thursday releases. The UK Industrial Production (m/m) numbers has also disappointed today, coming in at a negative 0.2% compared to an expected drop of 0.1%. However, UK Manufacturing production (m/m) has improved by 0.8% in September, well above expectations and British trade gap has also narrowed on rising chemical exports and falling imports. The Market seems to have overlooked these positive statistics and the Cable has slipped further despite a narrowing UK trade gap for the 3rd continuous month. Given these developments we remain bearish GBPUSD, but we also see the fate of Sterling closely tied in with the timing of the Fed lift-off and hence see improvement in GBP vs. the other G10 currencies (except USD) if Fed does lift-off in December.

The biggest data release for the week is the US Non-farm payrolls, due to come in today at 1330. The market expectations are of a 180K rise and any number near or above will push USD higher. On the other hand, a NFP figure around the 150-160 mark will push Fed lift-off expectation to March 2016, and USD will take a tumble. Elsewhere, the Canadian employment change and unemployment rate is due to come out at 1330, with a 10K rise expected in October, but unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged.