miroslava.micunkova's picture

Will Copper follow the same fate as Oil & Gold?

Copper saw a major rally back in 2009 - 2011 when the all time high was traded at 4.6495. Following correction retraced 50% swiftly, afterwards the price action settled in a multi-year horizontal channel.

A sequence of lower tops started to add more clues about the future price development, especially in the late 2012 when a right shoulder of a major bearish head & shoulders top formation was traced out. The break below the 2.7200-2.9940 June 2010 – October 2011 neck-line in April 2013 signaled a completion, indicating a minimum long-term downside target of 1.3385. Additional bearish signal was given on a successful neck-line retest from below.

In 2014 another bearish formation was traced out, referred to as a continuation triangle. Completion was signaled by a break below the 2.9035-2.9550 lows in November indicating the nearest downside target of 2.4205. Further out, we see 2.0464 (falling by 0.0057 a week) as a target, situated at a base of projected bear channel.

Given the analysis, Copper is likely to follow the major downtrend. The nearest measured target points at 2.4205, long-term targets (6 month+) at 2.0464 (falling by 0.0057 a week) and 1.3385.